Weather 2000's ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) Report incorporates our latest meteorological research as well as valuable feedback and suggestions from our clients over the years. The 8 page report includes a detailed discussion, global highlights, and temperature and precipitation anomaly tables.
Long Range weather forecasting covers generally the 1 month to 12 month time period (see FAQ). This period is crucial for Energy Brokers, Reinsurers, Weather Derivatives Traders as well as those involved with Risk Management and Planning in the Retail, Tourism and Entertainment industries.
Seasonal forecasts have been examined by meteorologists for decades, but the forecasts are usually qualitative and ambiguous. Vague terms such as "Above Normal" Temperatures are commonly used, encompassing large sections of the Nation. Our ENSO Report is Quantitative, outlining monthly deviations from normal (i.e. +4° F), for each of the 50 States, providing detailed and tangible temperature and precipitation expectations.
Climate outlooks often take a Net Result approach, forecasting the entire Season as a whole. This procedure masks crucial intra-season weather pattern changes (see FAQ). Furthermore, large portions of the Nation are frequently not forecasted for at all when an analog or climatology approach is used. Our ENSO Report breaks down the upcoming Seasons into monthly increments, for all locations. This allows you to see how the temperature patterns will evolve and gauge the forecasted volatility.
We commonly hear about climate computer models or analog forecasts and what they are indicating for the upcoming Seasons. This can lead to generic forecasts that have low resolution and large errors. Instead, we incorporate dozens of factors, from the global level (El Niño/La Niña) to the micro-scale, when we prepare our assessments. This is a more thorough and lengthy procedure, but it yields the most detailed and accurate results.
The traditional reference utilized when computing deviations from normal is the 1971-2000 historical average, excluding the most recent few years. Due to urbanization warming issues and climate regime changes over the past decade, this is now an out-dated and inappropriate reference average. We utilize a more contemporary average as a reference standard for our temperature projections, providing you with a more realistic outlook. In some cases the different averages can be quite substantial. For additional information, see our Historical Climate Data page.
The reason our ENSO Report's forecasts are monthly projections is because Seasonal forecasts can only be analyzed in monthly increments. There are services that claim to forecast bi-monthly, weekly and even daily weather out to several months into the future, but such claims are, and always will be, scientifically invalid (see FAQ). Daily weather forecasts lose validity beyond 10 days, and weekly or bi-monthly forecasts lose validity beyond 1 month. In keeping with our goal for the highest scientific integrity, our ENSO Report yields the greatest resolution capable by science.
