Predicting Winter temperatures based on November - Does a cold November mean a cold Winter?

The following is an excerpt of research conducted by Jeffrey D. Schultz, Chief Climatologist at Weather 2000. This case study was originally compiled in 1995, and has been updated each year. For additional information visit our research page.

Does a warm November foretell a warm Winter?

November average temperatures (departures from normal) for Washington, DC National Airport (DCA) are compared to Winter average temperatures (departures from normal). Climatological Winter is defined as December/January/February, normal is the 1981-2010 average, above normal is any positive anomaly, below normal is any negative anomaly, and exactly normal is no anomaly, ie 0.0 degrees.

**Average Temperatures and Departures for DCA over 69 years (Degrees Fahrenheit)**
Season	November	Departure	DEC-FEB	Departure

1948-49	51.4	1.9	42.2	3.8
1949-50	48.1	-1.4	42.8	4.4
1950-51	47.9	-1.6	37.8	-0.6
1951-52	44.1	-5.4	40.9	2.5
1952-53	48.2	-1.3	40.7	2.3
1953-54	48.1	-1.4	40.1	1.7
1954-55	45.2	-4.3	36.8	-1.6
1955-56	45.5	-4.0	36.4	-2.0
1956-57	46.1	-3.4	39.5	1.1
1957-58	49.5	0.0	35.7	-2.7
1958-59	49.8	0.3	35.6	-2.8
1959-60	46.8	-2.7	39.5	1.1
1960-61	48.4	-1.1	33.0	-5.4
1961-62	50.2	0.7	35.1	-3.3
1962-63	44.8	-4.7	31.9	-6.5
1963-64	49.8	0.3	34.7	-3.7
1964-65	51.0	1.5	36.7	-1.7
1965-66	49.5	0.0	36.7	-1.7
1966-67	49.5	0.0	37.5	-0.9
1967-68	45.0	-4.5	35.2	-3.2
1968-69	50.0	0.5	35.9	-2.5
1969-70	47.2	-2.3	34.4	-4.0
1970-71	49.3	-0.2	36.7	-1.7
1971-72	48.1	-1.4	40.1	1.7
1972-73	46.7	-2.8	39.4	1.0
1973-74	51.6	2.1	41.3	2.9
1974-75	50.8	1.3	41.5	3.1
1975-76	54.4	4.9	40.4	2.0
1976-77	43.0	-6.5	33.2	-5.2
1977-78	51.8	2.3	33.9	-4.5
1978-79	52.2	2.7	35.5	-2.9
1979-80	54.4	4.9	39.0	0.6
1980-81	48.5	-1.0	38.8	0.4
1981-82	51.3	1.8	34.9	-3.5
1982-83	51.8	2.3	40.8	2.4
1983-84	50.3	0.8	37.3	-1.1
1984-85	46.0	-3.5	38.0	-0.4
1985-86	54.3	4.8	35.7	-2.7
1986-87	46.5	-3.0	37.1	-1.3
1987-88	49.8	0.3	36.6	-1.8
1988-89	49.9	0.4	38.8	0.4
1989-90	47.9	-1.6	38.9	0.5
1990-91	52.0	2.5	42.0	3.6
1991-92	48.8	-0.7	40.6	2.2
1992-93	48.8	-0.7	37.9	-0.5
1993-94	48.8	-0.7	34.4	-4.0
1994-95	53.3	3.8	39.3	0.9
1995-96	43.1	-6.4	35.2	-3.2
1996-97	44.1	-5.4	41.5	3.1
1997-98	46.2	-3.3	42.5	4.1
1998-99	50.3	0.8	41.1	2.7
1999-00	53.1	3.6	40.0	1.6
2000-01	46.6	-2.9	36.1	-2.3
2001-02	54.8	5.3	43.2	4.8
2002-03	47.1	-2.4	34.0	-4.4
2003-04	53.1	3.6	35.9	-2.5
2004-05	51.0	1.5	38.5	0.1
2005-06	50.2	0.7	39.3	0.9
2006-07	50.7	1.2	38.6	0.2
2007-08	49.8	0.3	40.9	2.5
2008-09	46.6	-2.9	37.2	-1.2
2009-10	52.2	2.6	35.8	-2.6
2010-11	50.5	0.9	36.6	-1.7
2011-12	52.4	2.8	43.3	5.0
2012-13	46.6	-3.0	41.3	3.0
2013-14	46.6	-3.0	37.4	-0.9
2014-15	48.0	-1.6	36.5	-1.8
2015-16	53.7	4.1	42.0	3.7
2016-17	52.5	2.9	43.9	5.6

Normal November is 49.6 - Normal DJF is 38.3

Analysis of above table

**Number of times out of 69 years that:**
Condition	Number of Times	Percentage

A cold Nov is followed by a cold Winter	22	31.9%
A warm Nov is followed by a warm Winter	19	27.5%
A cold Nov is followed by a warm Winter	14	20.3%
A warm Nov is followed by a cold Winter	14	20.3%

Note: cold = below normal and warm = above normal

Thus, in the above analysis, we see that 59.4% of the time, a warm November is followed by a warm winter or a cold November is followed by a cold winter, while 40.6% of the time, warmth is followed by cold (or vice versa).

The following graph shows the departures from normal for November and Winter average temperatures, plotted against each other. The numbers were sorted in ascending order of November departures, to see if there was any type of grouping or correlation. The correlation coefficient is 0.2620, which is not statistically significant enough to use as a forecasting tool.

Does a warm November foretell a warm winter?

The answer clearly appears to be no. While long range winter temperatures can be predicted using a variety of forecasting methods, they can not be predicted strictly using the preceding November as a forecasting tool, and doing so has no scientific basis. ^* -

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