May average temperatures (departures from normal) for New York Central Park, NY (NYC) are compared to Summer average temperatures (departures from normal). Climatological Summer is defined as June/July/August, normal is the 1971-2000 average, above normal is any positive anomaly, below normal is any negative anomaly, and exactly normal is no anomaly, ie 0.0 degrees.
| Season | May | Departure | JUN-AUG | Departure | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1971 | 61.3 | -1.7 | 76.0 | 1.2 | |
| 1972 | 63.3 | 0.3 | 73.5 | -1.3 | |
| 1973 | 59.5 | -3.5 | 76.1 | 1.3 | |
| 1974 | 60.9 | -2.1 | 74.2 | -0.6 | |
| 1975 | 65.8 | 2.8 | 73.5 | -1.3 | |
| 1976 | 60.2 | -2.8 | 74.1 | -0.7 | |
| 1977 | 65.0 | 2.0 | 75.0 | 0.2 | |
| 1978 | 61.5 | -1.5 | 73.8 | -1.0 | |
| 1979 | 65.3 | 2.3 | 74.3 | -0.5 | |
| 1980 | 65.6 | 2.6 | 76.6 | 1.8 | |
| 1981 | 64.8 | 1.8 | 75.8 | 1.0 | |
| 1982 | 64.1 | 1.1 | 73.2 | -1.6 | |
| 1983 | 60.1 | -2.9 | 76.9 | 2.1 | |
| 1984 | 61.6 | -1.4 | 75.3 | 0.5 | |
| 1985 | 65.2 | 2.2 | 73.4 | -1.4 | |
| 1986 | 66.0 | 3.0 | 73.5 | -1.3 | |
| 1987 | 63.6 | 0.6 | 75.0 | 0.2 | |
| 1988 | 62.6 | -0.4 | 76.6 | 1.8 | |
| 1989 | 62.1 | -0.9 | 73.6 | -1.2 | |
| 1990 | 60.2 | -2.8 | 74.7 | -0.1 | |
| 1991 | 68.7 | 5.7 | 76.3 | 1.5 | |
| 1992 | 61.0 | -2.0 | 72.4 | -2.4 | |
| 1993 | 65.6 | 2.6 | 76.8 | 2.0 | |
| 1994 | 61.8 | -1.2 | 76.2 | 1.4 | |
| 1995 | 61.9 | -1.1 | 76.5 | 1.7 | |
| 1996 | 61.1 | -1.9 | 73.1 | -1.7 | |
| 1997 | 59.4 | -3.6 | 73.3 | -1.5 | |
| 1998 | 64.3 | 1.3 | 74.1 | -0.7 | |
| 1999 | 63.0 | 0.0 | 76.7 | 1.9 | |
| 2000 | 63.5 | 0.5 | 72.0 | -2.8 | |
| 2001 | 63.6 | 0.6 | 74.9 | 0.1 | |
| 2002 | 60.7 | -2.3 | 76.0 | 1.2 | |
| 2003 | 58.7 | -4.3 | 73.6 | -1.2 | |
| 2004 | 65.2 | 2.2 | 73.3 | -1.5 | |
| 2005 | 58.9 | -4.1 | 77.1 | 2.3 | |
| 2006 | 63.1 | 0.1 | 74.9 | 0.1 |
| Condition | Number of Times | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| A cold May is followed by a cold Summer | 9 | 25.0% |
| A warm May is followed by a warm Summer | 8 | 22.2% |
| A cold May is followed by a warm Summer | 9 | 25.0% |
| A warm May is followed by a cold Summer | 9 | 25.0% |
| A normal May is followed by a warm Summer | 1 | 2.8% |
Thus, in
the above analysis, we see that 47.2% of the time, an above normal May is followed by an above normal
Summer and below normal May is followed by a below normal Summer, while 50.0% of the time, above is followed by a below (and vice versa).
The following graph shows the departures from
normal for May and Summer average temperatures, plotted against each other. The numbers were sorted in ascending order of
May departures, to see if there was any type of grouping or correlation.
The correlation coefficient is -0.0332, which is not statistictly significant enough to use as a forecasting tool.
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