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I saw someone forecast that a Hurricane was going to hit Florida in a week to ten days. Can they know for sure?
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No. Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones are relatively small and complex systems. In fact, the average forecast track error five days
out is currently around 375 miles. Further into the future, track errors grow even larger; for comparison, the distance from Miami to Jacksonville is only
325 miles. This is exemplified by the miscalculated track of Hurricane Ivan in 2004 (see images below). A big contributor to this forecast error is Chaos Theory, which is
further examined on our FAQ Page. |
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Hurricane Ivan (2004)
Five Day Forecasts by the National Hurricane Center |
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Weather 2000 in the News:
- Fox News : Your World w/ Neil Cavuto [August 2007] - Weather 2000 discusses how the remnants of Hurricanes can cause flooding impacts thousands of miles away from where it makes landfall, and that the heart of the Season still lies ahead of mid-August.
- Bloomberg News [October 2006] - Weather 2000 offers insights about the vagaries of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts to Bloomberg News readers.
- HBO [August 2006] - Weather 2000 contributes research to and is interviewed by Spike Lee in his Documentary on HBO. Discussed are the risks to coastal communities posed by hurricanes and sea level rise, as well as future threats to the big metropolises of Washington D.C., Boston, and New York City.
- CNN Money [May 2006] - Weather 2000 tells CNN Money that Gulf of Mexico waters are currently warmer than at this time last year, and that the US energy complex should prepare for another quick-starting Hurricane Season.
- MSNBC : Rita Crosby Live & Direct [November 2005] - Weather 2000 wraps up the 2005 Hurricanes Season and warns businesses and residents about the potential for another volatile and active year of weather in 2006.
- Fox News: The O'Reilly Factor [October 2005] - Weather 2000 advises The O'Reilly Factor that more active Hurricane seasons as well as harsh winters will be in store for several years to come.
- CBS Early Show [September 2005] - Weather 2000 warns residents about Hurricane Rita's potential impacts and cautions that new cycles will increase the vulnerability of homes and businesses.
- CNN : Wolf Blitzer Reports [July 2005] - Weather 2000 talks of extreme Summer heat waves and hurricanes, and fierce Winter chill, threatening the nation this year and years to come.
- Fox News Live [May 2005] - Weather 2000 advises Fox News Channel of new Earth Cycles which are producing intense Hurricane outbreaks.
- Additional entries on the press page
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