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I saw someone forecast that a Hurricane was going to hit Florida in a week to ten days. Can they know for sure?
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No. Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones are relatively small and complex systems. In fact, the average forecast track error five days
out is currently around 375 miles. Further into the future, track errors grow even larger; for comparison, the distance from Miami to Jacksonville is only
325 miles. This is exemplified by the miscalculated track of Hurricane Ivan in 2004 (see images below). A big contributor to this forecast error is Chaos Theory, which is
further examined on our FAQ Page. |
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Hurricane Ivan (2004)
Five Day Forecasts by the National Hurricane Center |
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Weather 2000 in the News:
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