The following is an excerpt of research conducted by Michael Scott Schlacter, Chief Meteorologist at Weather 2000. This research was originally compiled in 1995-1996.
Due to the rarity of severe weather events in the northeast U.S. (relative to the southern/central Plains), the forecasting of such events can be difficult. However, severe weather does seem to be on the increase in this region over the past few decades. Though increased/improved warning verifications and spotter networks may have contributed to this increase in severe weather frequency (particularly since the 1960's), a more active weather pattern has also likely played a role. The goal of this research is to improve severe weather prediction in this region, and hopefully minimize crop damage, property damage, and fatalities associated with this severe weather in the future.
This study has designed/invented unique and accurate severe weather forecast indices customized for Buffalo, NY, Albany, NY and New York City, NY. Only the National Weather Service / NOAA has the official and legal authority to declare severe weather advisories and warnings. *
Instructions: To obtain a severe weather forecast, enter the appropriate wind direction values (1 - 360°) and dew point depressions (° C). Such entry data can be acquired from official 12Z, 00Z soundings or interpolated hourly satellite estimates. Indices perform best during summer months and with non-overcast conditions at times of observations.
1 All severe weather index titles and formulas are proprietary and part of published research papers.
Schlacter, M.S., 1996: Improving the Accuracy of Severe Weather Prediction Indices for the Northeast U.S., Independent research with collaboration from National Weather Service and Cornell University.
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